The actual phases of technology development are discussed in numerous other texts and are only briefly addressed here. Instead, we discuss some of the controversial issues surrounding technology development and how these may be managed. There are four basic phases of technology development.

• Basic Science and Technology Research
• Feasibility Research
• Development and Demonstration
• Application

The processes used within each phase are well developed (Y. Wang, 1996). The challenge of technology development is in progressing from one phase to another. This is where we see the most room for improvement as technologies often get trapped in a phase due to public opinion, political circumstances, the "not invented here" syndrome, or simply because they require too many other not-yet-developed parallel technologies. Another challenge is that technologies sometimes get caught in a political game (either internal to a nation or company or between nations or companies). Often this is because decision makers set vague goals and sometimes allow requirements to drift over time. The most recent example of this is, of course, the International Space Station.

The obvious solution to this is easy to state, but difficult to practice. Setting and holding clear goals and requirements allows technology planners and engineers to organize the most effective and efficient research programs. In section 3.4 we discuss several specific ideas for management of the strategy including methods for organizing international development at levels appropriate to the maturity of the exploration program.

Another major issue is technology transfer and sharing. Whether between departments, companies, or nations, sharing information about how you have solved a problem is a sensitive issue. In today's political environment it is clear that national security policies govern technology transfer in some countries, hindering the potential for synergy and growth of the parties. For better or for worse, it is necessary to devote resources to this problem, because we must work together. The strategy relies, as section 3.4 will show, on the combined strength of multiple nations to be successful.

As straightforward as the technology planning process may seem, it actually consists of a very complicated series of trade-offs between many potential choices and limited resources. Human spaceflight demands the detailed integration of a wide range of complex technologies and an understanding of many fields of science (see inset below). In fact, there are few fields that require such a diverse composition of scientific and technical knowledge in order to be successful. The challenge of integration of all this knowledge has resulted in modern management theories and systems engineering approaches. Human space exploration is, in fact, a prime example of our growing ability to synthesize complex interactions and operate increasingly sophisticated systems.

A Selection of the Many Sciences and Technologies Used in Spaceflight

Technology Propulsion, mechanical design, spacecraft structures, guidance and control, attitude control, computing, autonomous systems, thermal systems, space power, communications, life support, physical medicine, atmospheric shielding, pyrotechnics, sensors, ground based tracking, computer science, radiation hardening, electronics Science Aerodynamics, material science, medicine, psychology, chemistry, physics, biology, astronomy, geology, meteorology, and others.

It is especially difficult to foresee revolutionary "breakthroughs." In this century, great progress has been achieved in many fields. Of course no one could predict the current level of technology one hundred years ago. Technology has evolved so quickly this century that sometimes it is difficult to see what may be expected even in the next year. Typically in each area of science and technology there are certain problems that limit the scientist or engineer to progress further. These problems typically receive lots of attention and often significant research dollars (sometimes just devoted to understanding the basic problem). Even so it is rarely possible to place breakthrough research on a reliable schedule. One way to possibly improve the chance of a breakthrough happening is when you eliminate any other option as a solution, such as when a company or institution must evolve or succumb to competition or lack of interest.

Understanding what contributes to breakthrough thinking is valuable. There is certainly a connection between the level of information available to researchers and the chances that they will discover a breakthrough. This is one of the reasons, in fact, why the strategy focuses on international collaboration. More often, however, breakthroughs come from an opportunity to see a new perspective. Consequently, one argument we offer for space exploration is that it provides an increased opportunity for seeing new perspectives. In the next section we discuss how the strategy may be used to progress scientific and technological capabilities and how the strategy may take advantage of the occasional breakthrough leap.

We find that although ground-based research institutions are sometimes criticized for large overhead, redundant operations, and other inefficiencies, there is no other better system that may be easily implemented in the current political system. In fact, we believe that the current system is doing a good job of strengthening the processes used to apply new technology by applying detailed methods and expectations for each step. For example, detailed analysis requirements, extensive testing, and quality control programs help to ensure that new projects are less likely to fail. However, it is exactly the strengthening of this process that will reduce the chances of a major improvement happening. This is part of our justification to establish a self-sustaining human presence off of Earth at the earliest opportunity. We believe that this will result in the greatest potential for discovery and breakthrough thinking simply due to the large change in environment that should result in a major change of perspective. This change in environment is key and we discuss it further in the next section.

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